Scottish Nationalists need to start living in the real world if they want independence

Scottish Nationalists need to start living in the real world if they want independence

The Scottish independence campaign is this year and currently it looks like the Union will remain intact long after 2014.  There are several reasons why the ‘Yes’ campaign has been lagging behind in the polls ever since the referendum has been announced, firstly there is no real appetite in Scotland for independence.  Although the SNP currently have a majority in the Scottish they did not win that majority due to people wanting independence, they won for other reasons such as Labour’s roll in the financial crash and their relative success as a minority government.  However just because there was no strong call for independence initially does not mean that the SNP can’t win independence for Scotland if they start campaigning based on rational arguments, rather than ignoring facts and playing to peoples sense of nationalism.

One of the key issues in the independence debate is economics, will Scotland have a stronger or weaker economy if it goes independent.  Alex Salmond argues that Scotland will have a stronger economy if it goes independent, its economy will be based around the energy sector with funds coming from North Sea oil and green energy.  There are problems with Alex Salmond’s utopian vision of an independent Scotland’s economy, firstly it is now cheaper to get oil from the USA than from the North Sea this will reduce the lifespan of drilling in the North Sea.  Simple economics says that when oil companies can no longer make a profit from an oil well they move on.  Secondly, Green energy may be the future, but it may not.  It has challengers from nuclear, conventional energy sources such as coal, oil and gas, and looking further into the future nuclear fusion is already being tested in France this technology although far from complete has the potential to kill of all other forms of green energy.  The final problem with Green energy is that it is expensive and requires lots of government subsidies and tax incentives to make companies want to invest in green technology, this is money Scotland may not have if it is independent.  Currently Scotland spends 45% more on its people than it generates in tax, as it is part of the UK this spending is sustainable, if they leave they will have to borrow more money or make spending cuts.

Another huge economic debate surrounding independence is which currency will Scotland use?  Salmond has his heart set on the pound, and entering into a euro style currency sharing agreement with the rest of the UK.  However both the Chancellor and the Shadow Chancellor have both said no such agreement between Scotland and the rest of the UK will occur if Scotland gains independence.  This does not mean Scotland can’t use the pound, although if it does use the pound it will not have control over monetary policy which would undermine the whole point of being an independent country.  To illustrate the fact that the SNP currently don’t live in the real world, Nicola Sturgeon still insists the rest of the UK would sign a currency sharing agreement, she also said that an independent Scotland would have stronger growth than if it remained in the UK.  Although finance experts continue to ridicule the SNP’s economic policy, Ruth Porter head of economics at Policy exchange said “the raft of economically incoherent policies being proposed by Alex Salmond would be disastrous for Scotland.”  An independent Scotland would most likely have to adopt a new currency and this could severely damage the standard of living in Scotland and also as a new nation Scotland will struggle to borrow money at low interest rates.   One final point relates to Scotland joining the EU, recent reports suggest that Spain may oppose Scotland’s membership to the EU fearing that Catalonia may seek independence, this means that Scotland would not be able to adopt the Euro as an alternative to the pound (not that they would currently want to) and they would not have the easy access to European markets that they currently do and this would be hard on Scottish businesses.

To conclude the ‘Yes’ campaign need to start drawing up a serious economic plan for independence because currently if the facts differ from their argument they lie about the facts or ignore them altogether.  Their campaign is currently geared too much towards stirring up Scottish nationalism and without a solid economic plan this campaign will not be successful.  I doubt if Scotland votes no to independence, that the SNP would cease to be a political force in Scotland but it may spell the end of Alex Salmond and show him up for the demagogue he is.