Will Ed Risk Increasing Spending?

Will Ed Risk Increasing Spending?

Rumours are circling that Labour could reject austerity at the next election and increase government spending in an attempt to restart the economy.  This could see Ed Miliband reverse conservative cuts and offer the electorate a radical choice in 2015, one thing is certain if Miliband does end up rejecting austerity the 2015 election will offer the electorate the starkest choice since 1983.  It will soon be time for Labour to start unveiling some policies and most importantly setting out its spending plans this is going to be a tough decision for Miliband as not matter what he chooses he will face criticism.  

If Miliband accepts austerity he risks being branded a hypocrite and losing plenty of support, this is mainly down to the fact that under his leadership Labour have been strong critics of every coalition cut.  If Miliband says, Labour won’t reverse the cuts and will stick to Conservative spending plans it will likely win Labour some economic credibility.  However Labour has gained plenty of support from opponents of the cuts, it is reasonable to say that most of Labours new found support since 2010 has come from people who oppose the cuts.  It is likely that Labour will be unsuccessful with their plan to win over former Lib Dem supporters if they start to support cuts and can’t promise to reverse austerity.  So surely  Labour should promise to increase spending and roll back austerity, but in reality this option is just as dangerous for Labour.  Labour is already trailing when it comes to opinion polls on economic competence and on their ability to make tough decisions, if Labour comes out against austerity then further questions will be raised about their economic competence.  Conservatives will also be able to level blistering attacks at Labour reminding the electorate of how Labour ran the economy into the ground and their new plan is to bankrupt Britain again.  If Labour chose to reject austerity, they face the prospect of a 1992 re-run, there are questions about whether Labours leader is fit to be Prime Minister, and there are big question marks on Labours Economic competence.

Miliband is in an unenviable position he risks losing support no matter which way he goes,  the best thing he can do is chose the route he has the most belief in because come 2015 he will have to explain his economic plan and protect it from opposition attacks.  There is no point of Miliband winning the election if he does not win it on a platform he believes in at the end of the day if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister he does not want to implement the same policies as the Conservatives.  If he does choose to go against austerity and offer the electorate a real choice the next election will be a fascinating battle of ideas and which will probably increase turnout, which has fallen since 97 with a slight bounce in 2010.  However, I believe whatever Labour decide to do the Conservatives will win the next election with a small majority, as Labour will lose some of its new found support to the Lib Dems and UKIP’s vote will collapse in favour of the Conservatives.  Furthermore, if the economy picks up before 2015 it will be a Conservative landslide.