Britain expected to avoid triple dip recession
George Osborn may allow himself a pat on the back, as it is expected this week the UK will avoid a triple dip recession. Senior ministers are quietly confident that figures will reveal growth in the UK economy for the first quarter of the year, even if it is minimal growth. City economists predict 0.1% growth, not anything to shout about but importantly for the Chancellor the Economy will avoid a triple dip recession. In recent years, Britain has seen a damaging series of recessions in 2008, 2009 and the beginning of last year, if the economy was too slid into a triple dip recession it would have been hugely damaging for the Chancellor.
Ministers are starting to believe that the worst is over and this may be the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. Positive growth figures would be a huge relief for the Chancellor after a week in which he has faced increasing pressure from the IMF and the UK’s credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch. Nevertheless, even the downgrade had a silver lining in which the Chancellor was warned that the UK would face a further downgrade if they relaxed efforts to reduce the deficit.
The Chancellor still won’t be able to rest easy and Labour will not see such anaemic levels of growth as positive. In fact Ed Balls will still be able to attack the Chancellors flat lining economy and the fact that the UK’s predicted growth for the year has been slashed to 0.7%. In all honesty, growth figures of 0.1% would be nothing to get excited about but they would allow the Chancellor to rest a little easier knowing the economy will not be heading for a triple dip recession and that his economic plan may be starting to produce sustainable growth by 2015. There are no guarantees yet but maybe George Osborne’s economic plan will actually work.